Bitcoin is facing significant resistance at $108K, with recent bullish momentum weakening. Analysts suggest a potential retracement to $100K if retail pressure continues. Whale activity has decreased, leading to a market dominated by retail investors, as indicated by declining Open Interest and Futures Average Order Sizes. Derivatives platforms show bearish sentiment, with a Long/Short Accounts ratio below 0.61 on Binance and 0.59 on OKX, suggesting traders are betting against Bitcoin. The Stochastic RSI indicates overbought conditions, raising the likelihood of a deeper decline.
比特币在 10.8 万美元面临显著阻力，近期的上涨动能减弱。分析师建议，如果零售压力持续，可能会回调至 10 万美元。鲸鱼活动减少，导致市场由零售投资者主导，这从开放兴趣和期货平均订单规模的下降中可以看出。衍生品平台显示出看跌情绪，Binance 上的多空账户比率低于 0.61，OKX 上为 0.59，这表明交易者在押注比特币下跌。随机相对强弱指标（Stochastic RSI）显示超买状态，增加了更深跌幅的可能性
Will Bitcoin break through $108K, or has the resistance sealed its fate again?
If retail-led pressure persists, BTC could retrace to $100K despite recent bullish momentum.
比特币会突破$108K，还是阻力再次封锁了它的命运？
如果零售主导的压力持续，尽管近期有看涨动能，BTC 可能会回落至$100K。
Bitcoin [BTC] rebounded from the 23rd of June low near $99.7K, but bullish momentum weakened after facing rejection at $108.8K.
比特币 [BTC] 从 6 月 23 日接近$99.7K 的低点反弹，但在$108.8K 遭遇拒绝后，看涨动能减弱。
AMBCrypto’s analysis points to a potential reversal, as traders and whales signal mounting caution.
AMBCrypto 的分析指出潜在的反转，因为交易者和大户信号显示出日益谨慎。
BTC hits critical resistance – Is a reversal looming?
BTC 触及关键阻力——反转即将来临吗？
On the charts, BTC was trading at a historically heavy resistance level that previously sparked sharp pullbacks.
从图表来看，BTC 正处于历史上重大的阻力水平，此前曾引发剧烈回调。
As of the 30th of June, Bitcoin was approaching $108.8K but closed lower at $107,135, echoing past patterns of rejection near this zone.
截至 6 月 30 日，比特币接近$108.8K，但以$107,135 收盘，反映出在该区域附近的拒绝模式。
Source（来源）: Ali Martinez/TradingView
More worryingly, the Stochastic RSI showed a bearish Death Cross. The %K line fell below the %D line while still above the 80 mark—signaling overbought conditions with weakening momentum.
更令人担忧的是，随机相对强弱指标（Stochastic RSI）显示出看跌的死亡交叉。%K 线跌破%D 线，同时仍高于 80，表明超买状态且动能减弱。
These bearish signals, combined with the major resistance hurdle and the formation of a Death Cross, increase the likelihood of a deeper decline.
这些看跌信号，加上主要的阻力障碍和死亡交叉的形成，增加了更深回调的可能性。
Binance and OKX traders bet against Bitcoin
币安和 OKX 交易者对比特币做空
A closer look at derivatives platforms showed clear bearish pressure.
对衍生品平台的深入分析显示出明显的看跌压力。
As of the 30th of June, Binance’s Long/Short Accounts ratio stood at 0.61, with only 37.97% of accounts holding long positions.
截至 6 月 30 日，币安的多空账户比率为 0.61，只有 37.97% 的账户持有多头头寸。
Source（来源）: CoinGlass
On OKX, the ratio was even lower at 0.59. These values indicate that shorts outweighed longs by a large margin, suggesting broader trader pessimism.
在 OKX，该比率甚至更低，只有 0.59。这些数值表明空头远超多头，暗示交易者的悲观情绪更为广泛。
Binance led volumes at $13.05 billion, followed by OKX at $6.62 billion. The higher short interest, paired with rising volumes, adds to the downside risk.
币安的交易量为 130.5 亿美元，OKX 为 66.2 亿美元。更高的空头头寸，加上交易量的上升，增加了下行风险。
Whales are out, retailers are in
大户出局，零售投资者入场
Open Interest and Futures Average Order Sizes declined significantly, signaling reduced whale activity.
未平仓合约和期货平均订单规模显著下降，表明大户活动减少。
Source（来源）: CryptoQuant
On the 30th of June, Futures Average Order Sizes dropped sharply, a sign that whales, who typically trade large volumes, have exited their positions.
截至 6 月 30 日，期货平均订单规模急剧下降，表明通常交易大额交易的大户已退出其头寸。
This implies retail investors are now dominating the market—aligning with the bearish sentiment seen among Binance and OKX traders.
这意味着零售投资者现在主导市场——与币安和 OKX 交易者中看到的看跌情绪一致。
Source（来源）: CryptoQuant
At the same time, Open Interest fell to $34.7 billion, down from previous highs, confirming reduced liquidity and participation.
与此同时，未平仓合约降至 347 亿美元，低于之前的高点，确认流动性和参与度减少。
Retail traders appeared to be driving the market narrative. If they maintain bearish pressure in futures while whales stay sidelined, Bitcoin could slip back toward the $100,000 zone.
零售交易者似乎正在推动市场叙事。如果他们在期货中保持看跌压力，而大户保持观望，比特币可能会回落至$100,000 区域。
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